Dib-U-Soo-Saarista Shillin Rasmi Ah

A money changer carries Somali currency at the Bakara open air market in MogadishuNairobi waxaa lagu qabtay 7dii ilaa 14kii Maajo 2018ka, shir Dowladda Federalka Soomaaliya iyo hay’addaha “IMF and World Bank” ay ku falanqeynayeen natiijada kormeerkii 2aad ee “Staff Monitored Program.”

Soomaaliya waxey si guul leh u dhameystirtay qaybtii 4aad ee wadatashigaas. Taas ayaa keentay in dib loo cusbooneysiyo heshiiska mar 3aad  ilaa Abril 2019ka. Tan iyo Juun 2013kii, IMFta waxey ilaalo ku haysay Bankiga Dhexe ee Soomaaliya si dib loogu toosiyo hab-howleedkiisa iyo nidaamka maaliyadda dalka.

Villa Somalia waxaa loo fasaxay inay deeq-bixiyeyaasha caalamka ka raadsato maalgelin dhan $.41 malyan oo wajiga hore lagu daabaco Shillin rasmi ah. Kacdoonkii dadwaynaha ka dib, Soomaaliya ma soo dabacan lacag rasmi ah.

Maqnaashaha lacag rasmi ah ee daba-dheeraatay ayaa fursad u siisay dad ganacsato-isku-sheegayo iyo dagaal-ogeyaal inay dalka keenaan markii ugu horeysay Marso 1997kii lacag been-abuur ah. Lacagtaas waxaa ka mid ah 1000ka Shillin ee hadda dalka laga isticmaalo ee u midib iyo cabbir eg tii hore ee rasmiga aheyd .

Lacagta been-abuurka ah oo aad u tira batay intii u dhexeysa 1997 ilaa 2001dii iyo dalka oo gabay wax-soo-saarka dhaqaalaha, nabad galyo la’aan darteed, ayaa dhaliyay sicir barar xad-dhaaf ah. Waxaa cirka isku shareeray heerka sarrifka, ayadoo 100kii doollar uu gaaray 25,800 shillin Oktobar 2001kii.

Lacagaha been-abuurka ah waxaa soo daabacay shirkadaha kala ah Adorna (Malesiya), Peter Pura Barutama – Kudus (Indonesiya) iyo British American Banknote Company (Canada).  Tirada lacagahaas waxaa lagu qiyaasay 401 bilyan shillin (fiiri warbixinta kenyon college OH – USA).

Bishii 1aad ee 1991kii ka hor waxaa dalka ka socotay lacag guud ahaan tiradeeda aheyd 232.8 bilyan shillin. Lacagtaas sidii loogu dhaqmaayay ayey duugowday, kadibna baaba’day. Qayb kalena suuqa ayay ka baxeen isticmaalkeedii 500, 100, 50 iyo 20 shillin. Waxaa kaloo joogsaday ku dhaqankii lacagtii “New Shilling” ee xiligii Cali Mahdi.

Wadarta lacagtii xiligii Jaalle Maxamed Siyaad iyo tan been-abuurka waa 633.8 bilyan shillin, marka laga reebo “New Shilling.” Hase yeeshee, shillinka suuqa wareegaya waxaa lagu qiyaasaa inuu ka yar yahay 300 bilyan shillin oo 100% been-abuur ah.

Central Bank of SomaliaMaareynta dhaqdhaqaaqa lacagta dal walba laga isticmaalo iyo ilaalinta sarrifka waxaa u xilsaaran Bankiyada Dhexe. Bankigaas oo marka suuqa ay baahi lacageed ka jirto soo geliya. Marka suuqa lacagta ku badatona xakamadeeya si ay wax-soo-saarka ilaha dhaqaalaha iyo ganacsiga qalqal iyo khasaro u galin.

Markii suuqyada laga waayey lacagtii ka horeysay 1991ka, ayaa waxaa bilawday isticmaalka lacagta dollar Mareykanka oo yareeyey khatarta been-abuurka. Wargeyska “Bloomberg View – 12/23/2014” ayaa qorey in shillinka Soomaaligu, marka la barbardhigay 177 lacagood, uu muujiyay xasiloon wanaagsan.

Heerkaas wuxuu ku mutaystay sababo ay ka mid yihiin: (1) Ganacsato-isku-sheegtadii oo ku heshiiyey maareynta qiimaha shillinka – “cartel,” (2) isticmaalka nidaamka “mobile-money” oo soo kordhay iyo (3) fara-gelin la’aan dowladeed. Sicirka doolarka wuxuu ku xasilay inta u dhexeysa 22,200 ilaa 23,000 shillin 2015kii ka dib.

Taariikh ahaan, halkii Shillin Soomaaliyeed wuxuu la qiimo ahaa O.124414 Gramo oo dahab saafi ah (Marso 1961dii). Halkii Doolar oo Mareykan ahna sarrifkiisa wuxuu ahaa Sh.7.14 iyo Sh. 6.29 ilaa 1980kii. Waqtigaas wixii ka dambeeyay dalka wuxuu galay xaalad xasilooni darro dhaqaale oo keentay ciriiri lacag adag.

Shillinka Soomaaliyeed waxaa ku dhacay qiimo jab xoog leh (278%).  Xaladdaas si xal loogu helo Dawladda Soomaliyeed waxey heshiis la galshay hay’adda IMFta (1980-1986). Sarrifka halka doollar wuxuu noqday Sh.So.12.59, hase yeeshee kuma negaan.

Mas’alada Bankiga Dhexe hortaal waa halista isku-bedelida lacagta ay ku yeelan karto xasiloonida suuqa iyo sidii dhaqaalaha doolarka ku dhisan dib loogu soo celin lahaa. Ma sahlana burburinta dhagarta shabakadaha dhaqanka ka dhigtay lacag-sameynta been-abuurka.

Somali Shilling in PuntlandBartamahii 2017kii, sicirka doolarka wuxuu suuqyada Boosaaso iyo Beled-weyne ka gaaray 30,000 iyo 40,000 shillin sida warbaahinta sheegtay. Qalqalkaas waxaa sababay maamul-gobolydka Puntland oo daabacday lacag been-abuur ah.

Dalka wuxuu u baahan yahay shuruuc u dhiganta heerka caalamka ee la dagaalanka lacagaha been abuurka (counterfeiting), xaseynta lacagta xaaranta ah (money laundering) iyo la dagaalanka maaliyadda argagixiska (combating the financing of terrorism).

Madaxdii hore ee bankiyada Soomaaliya, Maxamed Xusein Amin (Bankiga Ganacsiga) iyo Maxamed Dalmar (Bankiga Dhexe) waxey ka digeen in lacagta laysku sarrifo.

Bankiga Dhexe oo ka ilduufa arrintaas, waxey keeni kartaa in daad lacageed uu qaado suuqa. Madbacadaha ka sokow, waxaa la tuhumsan yahay in boqolal bilyan oo been-abuur ah ay ku xaseesan yihiin xafadaha oo lala sugayo in lagu bedelo shillin rasmi ah.

Taasi waxey abuuraysa, (b) sicir-barar wiiqa awooda wax-qadashada dan-yarta, (t) sabeyn sarrif qalqaliya maalgashiga shesheeyaha iyo (j) xasilooni darro dhaqaale . Soomaaliya ma laha kayd lacag adag (foreign currency reserve) oo xoog leh si ay u daafacdo shillinka marka cadaadis uu galo.

Dhaqaaleyahannada maaliyadda ayaa intooda badan isku raacsan in labada lacagood lays barbar socdsiiyo ilaa tan been-abuurka ah ay ka baaba’eyso. Habkaasi waa sida keliyah ee looga takhalusikaro been-abuur dhaliya sicir barar (inflation).

Marka dhoofinta (export) laga reebo, ilaha dalka uu ka helo lacagta adag waxaa ugu weyn xawaaladdaha iyo gargaarka oo kala ahaa $1.4 iyo $1.3 bilyan 2016kii. Waxaa muuqato ifafaale tilmaamaya in gargaarka, oo kabo awooda wax gadashada dibedda, uu guridoono.

Waxaa hubaal ah, in xawaaladdaha oo ahaa 23% GDP – 2016kii keliyah aysan dabooli karin bahidda dalka, haddii aan dhaqan-dhaqaalaha dibedda ku jilan wax laga bedelin. Qiimaha lacagta dal (appreciation and depreciation) ayaa dowr weyn kaga jira dheeli-tirka ganacsiga wadanka.

Waxaa muhiim ah in laga taxadaro qiimaha qaybaha lacagta warqadaha ah ku qoran inuusan ka badan 5, 10, 20, 100, 500 ilaa 1000 shillin. Villa Somalia waa inay aad uga digtoonato in la soo dabaco lacag ku qoran qiimo aad u badan. Taas waxaa ku fashilmay “Zimbabwe.” Sideedaba, qiimaha lacagta waxaa dejiya suuqa, waxeyna ku xiran tahay dammaanad dhaqaale xoog leh iyo maamul-dawladeed oo hagaagsan.

Si loo helo shillin xoog leh oo lagu kalsoon yahay, waa in la xoojiyaa keydka lacagta adag ee dalka. Kolkaas ayuu bankiga dhexe iska daafici karaa cadaadiska suuqa sarrifka, kagana soo horjsan karaa asalka dhaqaalaha ku dhisan doolarka.

Bangi madax-banaan ayaa hubin kara hagaajinta nidaamka. Soomaaliya waxey hore u eedsatay banki dhexe oo aan madax-banaaneyn, oo u adeega sidii khasnad dowlad.

Shaki kuma jiro in dhaqaalaha Soomaaliya uu adkeysi badan yahay, hase yeeshee xasiloonida suuqa waxaa lagu gaaray fara-gelin la’aan dowladeed.

Nin lagu seexdow ha seexan……

Cabdulqaadir Cariif

Afeef: Fikradaha lagu dhiibto bartaan waa kuwa qoraaga u gaar ah, oo aan matalin kuwa wargayska, guddiga tifaftirka ama shaqaalaha.

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One comment

  1. Very interesting take on Somali economy. Since Somalia cannot attain a hard currency reserve to empower the shilling, the government can make the shilling a float and encourage production to creat a demand for the Somali shilling. However, before all that, the government has to, wholeheartedly, tackle the security issue because it’s the spine for a strong economy.

    Like

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