Xaqiiq Aan La Dafiri Karin – 2aad

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, isbedelka jawiga Geeska Afrika wuxuu Muqdisho siiyay fursad la ma filaan ah. Kolka hore, Soomaaliya waxay ka baxsatay dabintii Imaaraadka. Marka xiga, waxay door muhiim ah ka qaadatay dib-u-heshiisiinta Eritrea iyo Jabuuti oo ay diblomaasiyiinta Sacuudiga ka wahsadeen, kuwa Imaaraadkase dhabar jab ku noqday. Ugu dambeyntii, dalka wuxuu awood u helay ilo-dhaqaale oo xur ka ah Bariga Dhexe.

Hase yeeshee, waxaa war ka taagan yahay, “Yaa Soomaaliya ka sii daayey siriqda?” Ma sahlana jawaabta, haddana Soomaaliya marnaba ka ma maqneyn fekerka Washington – welwel amase reyn-reyn, tan iyo wixii ka dambeyey dagaalkii 2aad ee dunida.

Sidaas awgeed, waxaa  suuro-gal ah in Muqdisho ay ka faa’iideysatay saddex arrimood:

Xasilooni darrada Addis Ababa:

marathon runner

Kacdoonka sii kordhayay saddexdii sanadood oo la soo dhaafay ee dadweynaha Itoobiya, wuxuu keenay welwel la xiriira khatarta ka dhalan karta burburka qoomiyadaha kale duwan ee federalka ah. Taasi waxay khasabtay in xisbiga xukunka haya – EPRDF lagu cadaadiyo in uu bedelo siyaasaddiisa, si loo helo hoggaan badbaadiya jiritaanka Itoobiya.

Loollanka Shiinaha iyo Maraykanka:

China - US

Isballaarinta Shiinaha ee dhaqaalaha, ciidamada iyo malgashiga soo-saarista macdanaha muhiimka u ah farsamada casriga ah ee “electronics,” ayaa walaac ku sii kordhaya reer-Galbeedka, gaar ahaan Maraykanka. Reer-Galbeedku wuxuu is-tusay, in shirkadaha Shiinaha ay ka hor istaagi karaan ku tartanka qandarasyada sahminta khatarta sare leh iyo soo-saarista khayraadka Afrika, ayaga oo isticmaalaya nufuudda maalgashiga kaabayaasha.

Khatarta Ruushka:

Russia - USA - China

Qorshaha Ruushka ee saldhigyada – Eritrea, Sudan iyo Soomaaliya (Somaliland) oo badiyey khatarta “geopolitical rivalry.” Agaasimaha Xarunta Cilmi-baarista Ruushka iyo Yuro-Ashiya wuxuu sheegay in, “la filan karo in Ruushku uu ka rabo [Saylac] saldhig, bacdamaa Maraykanka iyo Shiinaha ay ku leeyihiin xarumo dalka Jabuuti.” Waxaa kaloo dhici karta, in Kremilin ay Hargeysa u ballan qaaday inay la raadineyso aqoonsi (The Sun – 18/04/2018).

Intaas oo idil, waxaa ka soo baxay cabsi ah in hoggaanka xisbiga EPRDF, ee ay hoosta ka wadaan TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front), Washington-na ay la daba taagan tahay taageerada, inuu sii kordhinayo madax wareerka mustaqal aan la hubin. Washington oo maanka ku haysa Shiinaha iyo Ruushka waxay ka fursanweyday inay dib u eegto xiriirka Itoobiya ka sokow, kan Geeska Afrika ee ku dhisanaa xakamadeynta boolaxooftaynta deriska:

  • In Eritrea lagu heyo go’doominta, ilaa ay ka ogolaato inay dib ugu biirto Itoobiya.
  • In Muqdisho la wiiqo, ilaa aysan ishortaagi karin Addis Ababa, si loo suurto geliyo in Itoobiya ay hoggaamiso Geeska Afrika (Global Research – 30/07/2018).
Somaliland

Dhinaca kale, diblomaasiyiinta reer Galbeedka ayaa la walaacay in go’doominta Eritrea ay soo jiidan karto xag-jirta Yemen. Weliba, in burburinta midnimadda Soomaaliya, ee Imaaraadka ku howlan tahay, ay saamayn xun (negative) ku yeelan karto isku heynta qoomiyadaha kala duwan ee Itoobiya.

Waxaa soo ifbaxay, in Ruushka fududeyn karo wadahadalka Hargeysa iyo Muqdisha. Weliba, ay suurtagal tahay, inuu wada helo Muqdisho, Hargeysa iyo Addis Ababa sida uu soo qoray wargeyska “Fair Observer – 6/08/2018.”

Intaas waxaa dheer, in Ruushka ku dhawaaqay inuu machad cilmi baarista qumbuluduriyada ka hirgelin-doono Addis-Ababa, iyadoo Casmarana uu doonayo inuu ka dhiso saldhig sahay dhigasho.

Mogadishu - US Ambasator

Inkastoo jaha-beddelashada siyaasadda aan si dhaqso leh loo fahmin, waxaa qariib noqotay in Muqdisho oo burbursan, loo soo magacaabay – Danjire Donald Yamamoto.

Sida muuqata, siyaasaddii Maraykanka ee ku jahaysnayd dagaalka xag-jirta, waxaa mudnaan ka yeeshay khatarta soo kordheysa ee Shiinaha iyo Ruushka (Pittsburgh Post Gazette November 20, 2018).

In mudda ah, waxaa walwal ka taagnaa diblomaasiyadda tamarta Geeska Afrika. Sanadkii 2007da, Shiinaha wuxuu heshiis, loo arkayay inuu lid ku yahay shirkadaha reer-galbeedka, la galay Soomaaliya. Sidoo kale, dhammaadkii 80yadii, Siyaad Barre wuxuu bixiyey sahminta khayraadka badda Hindiya (Indian Ocean) oo dhalisay ismaandhaaf ikhtiyaar.

Soo magacabista danjiraha waxay dhalisay jaha-wareer, ayada oo la mala awaalay in darajadiisii hoos loo dhigay. Shakigaas wuxuu ka yimid in bil ka hore, Xoghaye – Rex Tillerson oo booqanaya Geeska Afrika shaqada laga eryay.

Danjire Yamamoto wuxuu hore u joogi jiray Eritrea (1997-1998), Jabuuti (2000-2003) iyo Itoobiya (2006-2009). Intaas waxaa dheer, in Abril 2018kii wafdi uu hogaaminayey isku maray Casmara, Jabuuti iyo Addis Ababa, asagoo ah Ku-xigeenka Kaaliyaha Xoghayaha ee Arrimaha Dibedda.

Weliba sanad ka hore, wuxuu Washington si garsoodi ah kula kulmay wafuud ka kala socotay dalalka geeska, sida uu qoray wargeyska “The Economist – 17/07/2018.”

Go’aanka Washington ee Yamamoto wuxuu ka tarjumayaa xiriirka cusub ee Maraykanka iyo Soomaaliya, kasoo ka duwan kii hore kana madax banaan dillaal.

UAE-Etheopia-Eritrea

Waxaa muuqata in marti-gelinta iyo abaalmarinta  Riyad iyo Abu Dhabi ay dhammeystir u yihiin howl inteedii adkeed ay hore u sii qabteen, si sir ah kooxda Danjire Yamamoto.

Dhanka kale, ku baratanka dhaqaalaha Geeska Afrika, wuxuu si dadban u xadidi doonaa iskahorimaadyada dhaqanka u ahaa gobolka. Wuxuuna xal u noqon karaa midnimada madmadowga galay ee ummadda Soomaaliyeed, haddii la helo maskax furan.

Dadka u kuurgala arrimaha Soomaaliya ayaa qaba, in maanta ay tahay wakhtigii ugu haboonaa in lala xeertamo Riyad iyo Abu Dhabi. Labada dal waxey halis ku noqon karaan dadaalka deyn cafiska, kol haddii laga xigsaday Washington.

Dood taas ka soo horjeeda, ayaa aaminsan in Soomaaliya ay danteeda ka raacato xintanka amiirada Carbeed, kol haddii dalku ku guuleystay kalsoonida caalamka.

Waxaa hubal ah inay qaadan doonto wakhti, si looga gudbo xiisadaha dunida Carbeed. Soomaaliya waa inay mudnaata siisaa dib-u-habeynta IGAD, si ururku uu horyaal ugu noqdo horumarinta siyaasadda, dhaqaale iyo amniga gobolka.

Dal-Jire Soomaaliyeed oo daahsan ayaa yiri “Awood kasta ee shisheeye oo isku dayday in ay Soomaaliya ku dhisto-sawirka-riyadeeda, ayaa ka tegi ayada oo madax wareer la rajo beeshay. Soomaalida keliya ayaa go’aansaneysa mustaqbalkeeda sida fiican ama xun. Sheekhyada Gacanka Carbeed, waxaa laga yaabaa inay si deg deg ah u bartaan casharkaas” (The American Interest – 23/03/2018).

Cabdulqaadir Cariif Qaasim

AFEEF: Fikradaha lagu dhiibto bartaan waa kuwa qoraaga u gaar ah, oo aan matalin kuwa wargayska, guddiga tifaftirka ama shaqaalaha.

F.G: Sawiradda waxaanu ka soo amaahsanay internetka

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