Doorashada madaxweynaha Mareynkanka oo dunida oo dhan indhaha ku wada haysay ayaa ku sigatay mid aan la go’aansan karin. Musharraxa dimuqraadiga Joe Biden ayaa ku guuleystay doorashada madaxweynaha iyadoo la filayo in Donald Trump uu ka horyimaado natiijooyinka.
Dalka Maraykanka wuxuu ka kooban yahay 50 Gobol oo badanaaba u coddeya xisbiga muxaafidka ah (Jamhuuriga) kuwaasoo u badan bartamaha oo loo yaqaan (Midwest) iyo koonfurta Maraykanka, iyo kuwa u codeeya xisbiga Dimuqraaddiga oo u badan gaklbeedka (West Coast), Bariga iyo waqooyiga (East Coast).
Gobollada muxaafidka ah waxaa loo yaqaan kuwa casaanka (gaduudka – Red States), halka kuwa u xaqlinayo dhinaca dimoqraadiga loogu magac daraa kuwa buluugga (Blue States). Gobollo kale ayaa jira oo labada xisbi ay ku leeyihiin taageerayaal isu dhaw balse ay ku loollamaan oo loo yaqaan kuwa isbeddeli kara (Swing States ama Battleground States). Doorashada 2020 kuwaasi waa: Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, New Humpshire, Michigan.
Ku guuleystaha tartanka uma baahna keliya inuu xajisto gobollada xisbigiisa ku badan yahay, balse waa inuu wax ka helaa kuwa isbeddela. Tartankii 2016kii Trump waxuu ku guuleystay inuu u dhacay gobollada dimuqraadiga loo nisbeynayay sida Michigan, Wisconsin iyo Pennsylvania taas oo u xaqiijisay guusha.
Ciyaari waxay dhabqantay markii uu Trump isku dayay inuu rogto Minnesota oo aan u codeyn xisbiga muxaafidka tan iyo 1972kii, balse gadaashiisa lagala baxay Arizona oo dhaqan ahaan ka tirsaneyd Jamhuuriga tan iyo wixii ka dambeeyay doorashadii madaxweyne Bill Clinton (1992).
Gobol kasta oo ka mid ah 50ka maamul-goboleed ee dowladda federaalka ah ee Mareykanka iyo caasimadda Washington DC waxaa loo qoondeyay qayb ka mid ah 538 cod oo loo yaqaan “electoral vote – codka doorashada.” Ku guuleystaha doorashada waxaa looga baahan yahay inuu helo ugu yaraan 270 codka doorashada (electoral vote).
Sideedaba codka doorashada (electoral vote) waxaa laga doorbidaa midka shacabka (popular vote), waxuuna u dhigma kan Soomaalida u taqaan doorashada dadban ama 4.5 (four point five). In ka badan afar milyan codka shacabka (popular vote) ayuu Joe Biden ka badan yahay Trump.
Codbixiyeyaasha Arizona waxay lugaha isugu dhufatay Donald Trump dhowr arrimood awgeed: (1) Isbeddelka tirada dadka gobolka oo u sii batay da’ yar, ka soo guuray gobollada dimuqraaddiga haddana asalkoodu yahay Latino; (2) Siyaasadda xagjirka ah ee Trump oo laga nacay gobolka iyo xushmad darrada uu ku dhigay Senatorihii gobolka (John McCain); (4) Gobolka oo ka mid ah degaanka dadka da’da ah degen yihiin oo ka carooday sida loo maareyey caabuqa COVID-19; iyo (5) Xisbiga Jamhuuriga ee gobolka oo diiradda saaray canshuur dhimis xilli loo baahan yahay in dakhliga la geliyo waxbarashada, daryeelka caafimaad iyo horumarinta kaabayaasha dhaqaale.
Trump ayaa ku celceliyay sheegashooyin aan la xaqiijin oo musuqmaasuq ah, taas oo hurisay cabsi xiisad dastuuri ah. Walow nidaamka dimuqraadiyadda Mareykanka aan la barbardhiggi karin kan Afrika, haddana hoggaanka xisbiga Jamhuuriga wuxuu ku dhaci waayey inuu ka fogaado eedeymaha aan salka lahyn ee madaxweyne Trump.
Doorashada madaxweynaha waxaa barbar socday tan baarlamaanka aqalka hoose iyo qayb ka mid ah aqalka sare. Xisibiga Dimuqraadiga oo lacag fara badan ku kharash-gareeyey fursad lagu ballaarinayo aqlabiyaddooda baarlamaanka ayaa isweydiinaya maxaa dhacay? Ku dhawaad 20 xubnood oo laba sanadood ka hore siiyay aqlabiyad ayaa badankoodii soo noqon la’. Balse codbixinta oo hore loo dhiibtay si aan weligeed la arag ayaa loo xaglinayaa inay gacan ka geysatay guusha Joe Biden, walow hoggaanka xisbigu uu ku mashquulay fara-isku-fiiq.
Waxaa cajiib ahayd sida daahfuran oo loo xisaabay codka codbixiyayaasha oo dhan. Warse waxuu ka taagan yahay sideebuu noqon doonaa damanka (samanka) Trump marka uu ka dego xilhaynta madaxtooyada Mareykanka?
Cabdulqaadir Cariif Qaasim
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